crashderbygame| Corn prices have risen across the board, and the market  is "burning"! But what is the trend in the later period?

Source: Grain and Oil Market News

last weekcrashderbygameCorn in the Northeast and North China producing areas has started a comprehensive upward trend. The purchasing and storage policies in the Northeast producing areas have continued to work hard, and deep processing enterprises have begun to follow suit. The North China producing areas have continued to work hard to increase sharply, and corn production has entered a weakening cycle, and market sentiment has been completely ignited.

Supply side: The surplus grain at the grassroots level in the northeastern production area has basically been cleared. As of now, the sales progress of grassroots corn has exceeded 90%, and most grassroots grain sources have been transferred to trade channels. In the current period of significant market growth, most trading entities are reluctant to sell at low prices. High-quality corn in hand has a strong sentiment to support the price, and the current supply of grain sources in the market is tight; After concentrated production in April, the surplus grain in North China has gradually decreased, and the pressure on concentrated production in the market has eased. The current focus has gradually shifted to wheat. The number of trading entities that continue to purchase and sell corn has decreased significantly. At the same time, the amount of imported corn has gradually declined, and the spot supply of corn has gradually narrowed, and the bottom support for prices has gradually strengthened.

Demand side: According to market forecasts, corn consumption in the new year will reach 299.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1crashderbygame..6%, and both deep processing and feed market demand increased. This year's deep processing performance has been extremely outstanding, and the operating rate of enterprises has remained high. Some companies have reported that this year's corn demand has reached a three-year high. Surveys show that from May 2 to 8, corn deep processing enterprises across the country consumed a total of approximately 1.372 million tons of corn, a year-on-year increase of approximately 313,900 tons; the starch enterprise with the highest proportion of deep processing also had an operating rate of 65.78% as of May 15, a year-on-year increase of 17.36 percentage points; Some traders reported that the demand for corn by deep processing enterprises alone has increased by about 4 million tons this year, and the overall corn demand is in a significant growth trend.

In terms of feed, although pig production capacity has declined, pig prices have continued to be sluggish, and the overall demand for feed corn has declined slightly, feed breeding companies have always maintained a need for procurement. At present, new wheat is on the market, and wheat prices continue to be sluggish. Some feed companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Companies have a certain amount of inventory in early reserves and are not in a hurry to purchase. When corn enters a shortage of corn, the breeding end has also entered the peak season, and at this stage, the amount of imported grains arriving in Hong Kong has dropped significantly. In the long run, feed companies will still have a huge demand for corn, and perhaps feed companies will begin to officially make efforts on corn by then. In addition, some breeding companies still have bullish expectations for pig prices in the second half of the year. Perhaps as pig prices rise, companies 'demand for corn will continue to increase.

The author believes that at this stage, the supply-demand relationship in the corn market is gradually becoming more balanced, the bottom support of corn purchase prices is strong, and the downside space for corn prices in the future is very limited. (The original text was published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on May 21, 2024)