harmoniebaccarat| [Soda soda glass] Soda soda reaches a new high, and the glass policy is good

Soda ash:

Soda ash has soared one after another recently. From 20 May onwardsHarmoniebaccaratThe soda ash 2409 contract hit new highs one after another, and its rise was mainly driven by favorable real estate policies, macroeconomic recovery and strong fundamentals. in addition, soda long funds actively increased their positions, driving the soda market to rise again. At present, the positive factors brought by the news side have been reflected in the market, and some bulls have reduced their positions or closed their positions to stop profits, so the market rise on May 21 has narrowed sharply, and the follow-up driver needs to pay attention to the release of the effect of real estate policy. Short-term enterprise maintenance situation, so that there is still room for supply speculation, superimposed demand is good, so soda ash short-term market is expected to remain strong.

Attention: real estate policy, maintenance season, capital trend.

Glass:

Glass 2409 contract has maintained an upward trend since April, mainly due to a combination of improved fundamentals and capital promotion, and glass fundamentals are expected to be stronger in the future. On the one hand, supply remains stable; on the other hand, demand has been boosted by favorable policies and lower spot prices; in addition, thermal coal prices fluctuate in a narrow range, but soda ash spot prices are higher and cost-side support is relatively strong. Considering that after the release of the policy, it will take some time for the real estate recovery to transmit to the glass industry, and after the short-term capital speculation fades, the medium-term glass rise may return to rationality. However, in the short term, the glass market continues to be strong.

Concern: real estate policy, cost, capital trend.

I. Market Review

Soda ash recently rose sharply, the disk performance is on the strong side. As of May 21, the soda ash 2409 contract closed at 2363 yuan / ton, the spot price of Shahe heavy alkali was 2250 yuan / ton, and the basis was widened to-113 yuan / ton. Soda ash 2409 contract runs on the moving average system, and the intra-day game intensifies, but there is no obvious weak signal.

Glass's main contract is up nearly 5%. As of May 21, 2024, Glass 2409 contract days closed at 1657 yuan / ton, the spot price of North China Glass is 1679 yuan / ton, the basis is 22 yuan / ton, short positions continue to reduce positions, the market runs on the moving average system, the technology is strong.

In terms of the spread, the spread for FG409-SA409 contracts narrowed to-706 as of May 21.

II. Fundamental analysis

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Soda ash supply and demand improved, net export in the first month of the year

Soda supply: there is a small amount of maintenance of soda equipment in the short term, and the maintenance season will be ushered in in the medium term. The latest maintenance plan: from May 21 to June 4, the equipment of Shandong Haihua (000822) new plant is overhauled; on May 17th, Henan Tongbai Haijing stops the rising sun workshop and is expected to stop for one week; in addition, the Tangshan Sanyou chlor-alkali maintenance plan has been postponed. As of May 17, the utilization rate of domestic soda production capacity was 85.12%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.28 percentage points. The domestic output of soda ash was 709600 tons, a decrease of 10600 tons and 1.47 percent compared with the previous month. Among them, the output of light alkali was 311200 tons, an increase of 200 tons over the previous month, an increase of 0.06% over the previous month, and the output of heavy alkali was 398400 t, a decrease of 10800 tons and 2.64% respectively.

Soda demand and inventory: the demand for soda ash itself is relatively strong under the early positive support, and the soda ash inventory decline was driven by the release of favorable real estate policies on Friday, boosting soda sales. Soda ash demand is expected to remain strong this week. However, in the later stage, when the market trading returns to rationality, the high spot price will bring challenges to the acceptance of downstream demand.

The main results are as follows: (1) the production and marketing rate of soda ash increases, and the demand for heavy alkali in glass becomes tighter than before. As of May 17, the domestic soda production and marketing rate was 100.82%, an increase of 5.08% compared with the previous month; domestic float glass production was 1.2111 million tons, a decrease of 11200 tons and a decrease of 0.92%; and the domestic photovoltaic glass weekly production was 652200 tons, an increase of 13100 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 2.05% compared with the previous month.

(2) Soda continues to go to the library, but light alkali accumulates. As of May 17, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 885300 tons, a decrease of 5800 tons from the previous month and 0.65% from the previous month. Of this total, the light alkali inventory was 371500 tons, an increase of 25500 tons from the previous month, an increase of 7.37% from the previous month, and a decrease of 513800 tons from the heavy alkali stock, a decrease of 31300 tons and 5.74% from the previous month.

Soda import and export: according to customs data, China's net export of soda ash reached 26600 tons in the first month of April 2024. In April 2024, China's soda ash exports reached 90500 tons, down 9.40% from the previous month. The average export price was US $257.94 per tonne. The main exporting countries were South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, accounting for 13%, 13%, 11% and 10% of the total export volume, respectively. Imported soda ash was 63900 tons, up 94.46% from the same period last year, down 70.33% from the previous month. The main importing country was the United States, accounting for 75% of the total import.

2.2

Float glass appears to be removed from the library, and there is still room for recovery.

Float glass supply: last week, some enterprises overhauled, after the removal of the new ignition production line, weekly production is still slightly declining; this week's production line has no clear ignition, cold repair plan, Nissan is expected to maintain around 172200 tons. As of May 17, the domestic float glass production was 1.2111 million tons, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous month; the domestic float glass operating rate was 83.61%, a decrease of 0.79% compared with the previous month.

Float glass demand and inventory: glass enterprises have switched to depots again, reaching 12.43% in North China and 4.63% in Northeast China, both of which are higher than the national average. As of May 17, domestic float glass inventory was 2.9742 million tons, a decrease of 86100 tons from the previous month and 2.81% from the previous month. The number of order days for glass processing enterprises was 11.2 days, an increase of 0.9% from the previous year, which was still on the low side compared with the same period last year. The rise of glass in the later period is mainly driven by the positive terminal real estate policy and the process of policy transmission from information to the actual demand for float glass.

III. Outlook for the future

Soda ash has soared one after another recently. Since May 20, the soda ash 2409 contract has reached new highs for the year one after another, which is mainly driven by favorable real estate policies, macroeconomic recovery and strong fundamentals. in addition, soda ash bulls actively increase their positions, pushing the soda market up again. At present, the positive factors brought by the news side have been reflected in the market, and some bulls have reduced their positions or closed their positions to stop profits, so the market rise on May 21 has narrowed sharply, and the follow-up driver needs to pay attention to the release of the effect of real estate policy. Short-term enterprise maintenance situation, so that there is still room for supply speculation, superimposed demand is good, so soda ash short-term market is expected to remain strong.

Attention: real estate policy, maintenance season, capital trend.

The glass 2409 contract has maintained an upward trend since April, mainly due to the combined effect of improving fundamentals and capital promotion. It is expected that the glass fundamentals will be stronger in the future. On the one hand, supply remained stable; on the other hand, demand was boosted by favorable policies and spot price cuts; in addition, thermal coal prices fluctuated within a narrow range, but spot prices of soda ash rose, and cost-side support was relatively strong. Considering that it will take some time for the real estate recovery to be transmitted to the glass industry after the policy is released, after the short-term capital speculation recedes, the medium-term glass increase may return to rationality. However, the glass market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Attention: Real estate policies, costs, and capital trends.