tyrantmegaways| Analysis of lithium carbonate market shocks: Operation recommendations for the 07 contract interval

News summary

Yesterday, the lithium carbonate market showed a trend of opening high and moving lowtyrantmegaways, the main contract fell to 10tyrantmegaways.60,000 yuan/ton. Lithium hydroxide exports fell month-on-month in April, while ternary exports performed generally. It is expected that the 07 contract will fluctuate within the range of 103,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to pay attention to the low-position reduction strategy.

Newsletter text

[Futures market trading strategy adjustment]

Futures investors should pay attention to the lithium carbonate market trends in the near future. Yesterday, the main contract price of lithium carbonate showed a correction to 106,000 yuan/ton. With a slight decline in trading volume, positions remained stable.

According to the latest data, China's lithium hydroxide exports fell by 15.7% month-on-month in April, but increased by 7.2% year-on-year. Cumulative exports increased by 3.9% from January to April. Exports of ternary precursors increased by 10% month-on-month, but decreased by 19% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 11%. Exports of ternary materials also fell by 1% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year. These data reflect that the growth of the overseas new energy vehicle market is slowing down. At the same time, the volume of lithium concentrate exported by Tehran port to China fell by about 50% month-on-month in April, which deserves the attention of market participants.

Market analysis believes that although the upper pressure on lithium carbonate is still obvious, the current optimism in the commodity market and the relatively low level of lithium carbonate may trigger capital inflows and have an impact on prices.

Therefore, the 07 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 10.3 to 108,000 yuan/ton.

[Operational suggestions] In the current market environment, investors should consider appropriately reducing their short positions at low levels and appropriately increasing their positions at high levels to adapt to market range fluctuations. In terms of option strategy, selling a wide-span option combination is also a feasible option.