costofpowerballticket| In-depth tracking of the utility industry: stabilizing coal prices and realizing the new trilogy focusing on carbon costs and environmental values

Attention: Zhejiang Neng Power + China Resources Power + Guodian Power + Huadian International + Yangtze River Power + Laureate Power Coal Price stabilized, pay attention to the value trilogyCostofpowerballticketThe thermal power ROE is cashed. Coal prices have fluctuated at 820-860 yuan per ton for nearly a month. We released "Coal Price Stabilization-opening New Thermal Power Trilogy" on April 28, suggesting that we should weaken the cyclical market and pay attention to the value of thermal power as the left side of the cost absorbed by the scenery of the whole society. Thermal power will move towards a new trilogy of value market around the demonstration rhythm of the ROE model: (1) the stabilization of coal prices since the end of April confirms that the profit center is rising and sustainable. At the same time, the capacity electricity price makes a good contribution to stabilize the source of ROE. (2) from May onwards, provincial auxiliary services will be released one after another to confirm the ROE contribution brought by auxiliary services; (3) from August, some provinces will begin to sign electricity prices for 2025 to confirm whether electricity prices can reflect the cost of coal consumption, and will usher in a high performance increase in the China report, and the linkage between coal and electricity may also be accelerated. At present, coal prices are on the road to stabilization. on the one hand, they are optimistic that power plants have a certain ability to adjust coal stocks, on the other hand, the continuous improvement of hydropower power generation restrains the sharp rise in coal prices, and the proportion of long-term associations is expected to continue to rise, paying attention to the industrial trend of stabilizing coal prices. It is optimistic that thermal power will jointly promote ROE to maintain 10% through capacity electricity price, auxiliary service, and electricity price. Carbon prices are high and quotas are expected to continue to tighten, focusing on carbon emissions costs and environmental values. Judging from the carbon emission revenue and expenditure of power companies in the past few years, the difference is relatively obvious, such as the continuous increase in the net carbon emission income of Guodian Electric Power (1.Costofpowerballticket.2, 2.50, 320 million yuan, company financial report), but there are also companies that have net expenditure and have improved. We believe that on the one hand, the second performance period of the national carbon market (2021-2022) will reduce the carbon emission benchmark, the quota issuance will be significantly tightened, and the quota payment needs to be completed by the end of 2023. On the other hand, the free quota is related to thermal power, fuel type and capacity grade, and varies for companies with different installed structures. The current carbon price continues to rise, has exceeded 100 yuan / ton, nearly double the transaction price last year, the subsequent difference in carbon emission costs is more obvious. In addition, with the clear measurement of the cost of carbon emissions, we also suggest that we can place more expectations on the environmental value of green power and pay attention to the accelerated landing of follow-up policies. The commercialization of public utilities is the core of the market, paying attention to ROE, dividend ability and stability. The annual report in the first quarter highlights the high ROE, the improvement of profit stability and dividend ability, the improvement of the degree of public utilities in the sector, and the interpretation of the market as scheduled. Looking forward to the future, hydropower water supply improvement + energy storage high, electricity is expected to improve under the joint dispatching, volume and price rise is worth looking forward to, has entered a new stage of the market, long-term PB is more than 3 times, and can look forward to the improvement of DDM valuation. Nuclear power has continued to be a public utility since last year, and its asset quality is close to hydropower. The current ROE hub is 10%, and the long-term dividend can be expected. China's nuclear power PB is more than 2 times. Thermal power will become the next main body of public utilities. After the increase in net assets, the PB of pure thermal power companies has dropped to 1.2 times. Pay attention to the acceleration of the process of thermal power utilities. Public utilities accelerate the change of electric power value. Thermal power pays attention to high ROE+, high dividend + high-growth Zhejiang Power, China Resources Power, High dividend Huadian International, Shenneng shares, Inner Mongolia Huadian Power, High-growth State Power, Wanneng Power, Huaneng International; Hydropower pays attention to Yangtze River Power, Laureate Power, State Investment Power, Sichuan Investment Energy; Nuclear Power pays attention to China's nuclear power; Green Power pays attention to Funeng shares and auspicious Power shares. Risk hint. The reform is not as expected; coal prices have risen in excess; and the progress of green power installation is low. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.