rodandreel| The photovoltaic industry chain fell irrationally, industry leaders said they would not proactively launch a price war

Liu Canbang, a reporter from the Securities Times

"irrational decline" has become a number of institutions for the recent price trend of the photovoltaic industry chainRodandreelThe general view. Especially in polysilicon.RodandreelThe lower limit of the quotation range has reached less than 40,000 yuan / ton, falling below the cash cost of most enterprises. In other links of the industrial chain, it is common to fall below the enterprise cost line.

In the first quarter of this year, the performance of many photovoltaic industry leaders changed from profit to loss, aggravating the worries of the industry. In the recent institutional research, a number of enterprises were asked about their views on the market outlook. Tongwei shares (600438) said it would not take the initiative to launch a price war, hoping to see the steady development of the industry and the automatic adjustment of the market. Jingke Energy said that the market competition is fierce, production capacity clearance will be faster than people think. Jingao Science and Technology mentioned that the current industry at the bottom has reached a consensus that it is difficult to make a profit in all aspects, and the company is ready to adhere to it for a long time.

Silicon material falls below 40,000 yuan / ton

The latest data released by the Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association show that the price of polysilicon has fallen again in the past two weeks. Among them, the average transaction price of N-type rod silicon is 4.Rodandreel.53 million yuan per ton, down 7% from the previous month.Rodandreel.93%. The average transaction price of P-type compact material was 39000 yuan / ton, down 8.88% from the previous month. The average transaction price of N-type granular silicon was 40,000 yuan / ton, down 6.98% from the previous month.

The Silicon Industry Branch believes that pessimistic expectations for the market and high inventory pressure are the main factors leading to the continued decline in prices, and silicon prices have exceeded the cash costs of most enterprises, and enterprise maintenance expectations have intensified.

InfoLink Consulting, an industry consultancy, said that the current price level has fallen below the overall production cost level across the board, and some enterprises have gradually begun to arrange for early overhaul and production reduction, but the production progress of the new capacity of the head enterprises in the middle and late second quarter is also in an orderly process, followed by a decline in some production but another increment, so the overall new output this month remains stable compared with the previous month.

According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, at present, five enterprises will carry out maintenance plans or technical reforms ahead of time this month, and the capacity release of three new production enterprises is not as fast as expected, the situation of excessive growth of silicon supply is expected to be alleviated. Polysilicon production is expected to be about 190000 tons in May, the same as in April.

However, due to the lack of motivation to sign orders, silicon inventory continues to accumulate. InfoLink mentioned that inventory pressure continues to ferment, and it is expected that the accumulated stock level will increase and be difficult to decrease in the second and third quarter, and the pressure on silicon sales is hardly optimistic.

Recently, Tongwei shares of Yunnan Tongwei Phase II 200000 tons of high-purity silicon project to achieve an one-time successful start-up, which is currently the world's largest single production capacity project. Tongwei said that with the full production of Yunnan Tongwei Phase II 200000-ton project, the company's annual production capacity of high-purity silicon will reach 650000 tons, further consolidating the leading position of high-purity silicon in the world.

In a recent institutional survey, Tongwei shares said that reviewing every cycle of the polysilicon industry in history, the root cause is the mismatch between supply and demand, and this round is no exception. The company judges that 2024 will be a period of deep adjustment in the industry, and excess capacity will be cleared gradually. With regard to the price, Tongwei shares will continue to follow the principle of following the market, and would like to see the steady development of the industry and the automatic adjustment of the market.

When asked whether the company's construction projects will slow down, Tongwei shares said that all of the company's current high-purity silicon projects under construction have undergone long-term research and full demonstration, and are carried out under the guidance of the company's production planning for 2024-2026. In addition, Yunnan Phase II 200000 tons and Baotou Phase III 200000 tons of high purity crystal silicon projects will be put into production as scheduled this year. It is expected that after the new project is put into production, it will achieve better quality, cost, environmental protection and other goals, and continue to consolidate the company's competitiveness in the high purity crystal silicon link.

The cash loss has not improved.

Also facing an irrational decline are silicon wafers. Data from the Silicon Industry Branch show that in the past two weeks, the average transaction price of P-type M10 single crystal silicon chip has dropped to 1.57 yuan per chip, down 3.68% from the previous week; the average transaction price of N-type M10 single crystal silicon chip has dropped to 1.4 yuan per chip, down 9.68% from the previous week; and the average transaction price of P-type G12 single crystal silicon chip has dropped to 2.08 yuan per chip, down 2.35% from the previous week. The average transaction price of N-type G12 single crystal silicon wafer is 2.18 yuan per wafer, and the cycle-to-ring ratio is flat.

Silicon industry branch analysis, the silicon wafer production schedule of about 63GW~65GW in May, inventory showed a downward trend. At present, after the short-term peak of silicon wafer inventory at the end of March, the phenomenon of small destocking appeared in April. The mode of external mining, double distribution and silicon foundry took the place of pulling crystal production, and the relationship between supply and demand of large-sized silicon wafers improved slightly. However, the cash loss of silicon wafers has not improved.

InfoLink data show that the silicon wafer schedule did not change much in May compared with April, and the total amount remained at the 66GW level. In addition, different manufacturers have different pricing strategies because of their own demands. Some enterprises give priority to profit orientation, while most others consider market share and customer relationship, and implement price differentiation continuously, highlighting the prisoner effect among silicon chip companies.

The Silicon Industry Branch's judgment is even more pessimistic: at present, silicon wafer prices have moved away from the fundamentals of supply and demand and are developing in an irrational direction.

In a recent survey, Longji Green was asked what kind of competitive strategy the wafer business will adopt and how to improve the wafer competitiveness. The company said that in the past, the industry focused on the discussion of silicon wafer specifications and N / P type, but no matter the specification, N type or P type, it is only a demand of customers. For enterprises, no matter what specifications of silicon wafers are made, the production equipment is the same, and the production process is similar.

Longji Green mentioned that "Tairui" silicon wafers have been launched this year, and the new technology can compress the resistivity difference between the head and tail of single crystal silicon rods to less than 1.5 times. At the same time, the mechanical strength is further improved and the gettering performance is improved. This is also a substantial change in the performance of silicon wafers and a major innovation in the field of silicon wafers in recent years. In addition, the company mentioned that the gross profit margin of "Terui" wafers is expected to be higher than that of existing conventional wafers.

TCL Central was also asked about the wafer strategy. The company said that the internal slogan "dig deep beach low Weir", "tap the space of their own technology, tap the space of manufacturing capacity, rather than to seek and upstream and downstream game with each other's losses to generate our profits." This is a basic strategy of TCL Central based on engineer culture and industry awareness.

The component price is close to the bottom

There is also a new situation in the battery module link. According to the analysis of the Silicon Industry Branch, the production schedule of battery components in May is temporarily uncertain, there is the risk of large-scale production reduction, and the components have the tendency of game terminals, and the price of components has continued to decline recently. Some second-and third-tier enterprises are unable to support forced production cuts. On the other hand, the recent rising non-silicon costs of auxiliary materials such as silver paste and glass will exert more pressure on the cost of main materials, making the already lossmaking battery module industry under pressure.

In terms of price, InfoLink data show that battery prices continue to show a slow downward trend this week, with the P-type M10 size falling slightly to 0.32 yuan per watt and the G12 size transaction price falling slightly to 0.35 yuan per watt. In the part of N-type battery, the price of M10 TOPCon battery is loose, and the average price is about 0.37-0.38 yuan per watt, while the high efficiency part of HJT (G12) battery is 0.55-0.65 yuan per watt.

In terms of components, it seems that orders are stable in May, and the support still comes mainly from the domestic market. At present, most of them are mainly concentrated on the implementation of mining projects. The price of TOPCon components is about 0.88 to 0.92 yuan per watt, while distributed projects are mainly at the level of 0.85 to 0.93 yuan per watt, and there are also some low-cost resource orders. At the same time, front-line manufacturers still adhere to the bottom line delivery level of 0.88 yuan per watt, and the delivery price in the middle and back section is still lower than the cost line.

InfoLink pointed out that from May to June, component scheduling is stable, and there is no large growth trend, the gap is reflected in the differentiation of manufacturers' strategies, first-line manufacturers maintain stable scheduling supported by orders, while some manufacturers maintain high scheduling planning in the second quarter; the middle and later manufacturers are partly supported by OEM orders, considering revision of May-June scheduling planning, and the other part tends to use the strategy of controlling scheduling to maintain operations.

In the recent institutional research, Longji Green Energy also responded to the company's component strategy. According to the company, the photovoltaic market can be divided into a centralized market and a distributed market, and the proportion of the company's full-year shipping target is 6:4.

Specifically, the distributed market is the spot market, the so-called long order can be understood as a framework agreement, usually signed with dealers, because the order will change with the market, Longji does not consider the coverage of distributed market orders for the time being. For the centralized market, Lonji relies on existing orders to support its annual sales target, which currently accounts for 70% of the centralized business.

Longji Green said that in 2024, it is expected that the price predictability of each link of the industrial chain will be higher, the whole will be in a relatively stable state, will continue to maintain a sound business strategy, under a sound strategy, will be able to successfully achieve the set goals.

Jingao Technology said that looking forward to the second quarter, component prices are close to the bottom, falling space is very limited, I believe that the market will adjust itself. The efficiency and yield of the company's own N-type battery products have also been greatly improved, making a great contribution to the non-silicon cost of battery production, and is cautiously optimistic about the second quarter. In addition, Jingao Science and Technology mentioned that there is a consensus that the current industry is at the bottom, it is difficult to make a profit, and it is ready to adhere to it for a long time, and will carefully face the adjustment of the industry cycle. The company also mentioned that the "profit first" order acceptance strategy remains unchanged, while focusing on cash flow and avoiding losses, seeking a balance between operating rate and output.