crash4steam| Q1 's performance continues to grow at high levels, and the value restoration path of YMM.US becomes clearer

On the evening of May 21, the gang released its first-quarter earnings report for 2024, with the word "exceeding expectations" running through it.

This year, Q1, the full gang realized 22% of the operating income.Crash4steam70 million yuan, an increase of 33.3% over the same period last yearCrash4steamUnder non-US accounting standards, operating profit was 490 million yuan and net profit was 760 million yuan, up 78.2% and 46.9% respectively over the same period last year. Revenue and profit data continue the high growth trend of its performance in 2023 and exceed market consensus expectations.

China International Capital Corporation research newspaper pointed out that with the increase in digital penetration of the freight industry, as the leading platform enterprises, Manchu will continue to record high growth and maintain the "outperform industry" rating, giving a target price of US $12.20.

Open information

What on earth did the gang do right to be able to continuously hand over such high-quality transcripts and be highly recognized by the organization?

A good runner in a good track

First of all, the overall recovery of the logistics industry has brought a good growth environment.

According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the climate index of China's logistics industry was 52.4% in April, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Further, in April this year, the expected index of business activities in the logistics industry was 55.7%, rising 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and being in a high boom range for three consecutive months.

Behind this is the support of macroeconomic recovery. This year's Q1, China's GDP reached 29.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3 percent over the same period last year at constant prices, and 1.6 percent over the fourth quarter of 2023.

The macro environment of continuous recovery has brought a better business environment for many small and medium-sized enterprises. According to data from the Association of small and medium-sized Enterprises, in April, the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises was 89.4, up 0.1 points from the previous month, achieving a rebound for two consecutive months and higher than the level of the same period in the past two years.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are an important part of the whole group of shippers and users, and the "Chunjiang water warm" environment means better development conditions for this digital freight platform.

From the point of view of the business structure, the core business of the gang is the freight matching business, that is, to match the shipper and the truck driver, and then charge a service fee from the transaction.

The foundation of this business logic is that Manbang, as an online digital platform, can help shippers and drivers solve the problem of offline information asymmetry, thus reducing costs and increasing efficiency. this is also what the entire logistics industry must do to better support the real economy.

In the first quarter of this year, the government work report also clearly emphasized "implementing actions to reduce logistics costs", which is in line with the proposal made at the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee to "effectively reduce logistics costs in the whole society." However, the price of the simple pressure drop logistics provider is not a long-term solution, digital logistics to replace the traditional logistics model is the right solution.

Under the digital enabling, the shipper can avoid the price increase of layers of middlemen and directly reach the terminal driver, which can not only accurately transmit the demand, track the progress, but also get the required service at a lower cost; drivers can find a waybill that is more suitable for them from the mass waybill, and can plan the route reasonably with the help of the digital ability of the platform, so as to maximize the reduction of empty driving rate, empty rate and vacancy rate, and make more money.

Shippers and drivers can get what they need at lower cost and higher efficiency from the platform, which is also the underlying logic of the ecological prosperity of the platform. In Q1 this year, the average number of monthly active users of shippers reached 2.14 million, an increase of 22.3% over the same period last year. In the past 12 months, the number of active drivers reached 3.91 million, a record high.

With the continuous increase in the size of shippers and drivers, the number of orders has naturally increased significantly. In Q1 this year, the number of fulfillment orders for the platform reached 39.3 million, an increase of 29.6% over the same period last year.

As a more and more prosperous digital logistics platform, the value center should move up accordingly.

Second, aim at the direct customers of small and medium-sized enterprises and enter a new stage of fine operation

According to the above logic, if there is aCrash4steamHis platform can also provide similar services for shippers and drivers, can it replace the full gang? The author believes that this is unlikely.

In a bilateral network model of freight brokering, the winner-takes-all effect is particularly prominent.

With its strong push ability, the whole gang completed the initial large-scale accumulation early and occupied 60% of the market share in 2021. Newcomers want to copy this play, not only lack a full bunch of strong operating genes, but also face the high traffic cost caused by the peak of Internet traffic dividend, which shows the difficulty.

More importantly, the gang found accurate user portraits.

Zhang Hui, chairman of Manbang Group, once said that Manbang is committed to becoming a shipping portal for 30 million small and medium-sized enterprises. This is precisely in line with the most essential attribute of the logistics industry, that is, enabling the real economy.

According to the popular saying of "56789" in the industry, small and medium-sized enterprises contribute more than 50% of the national tax revenue.Crash4steamMore than 60% of the countries have more than GDP,70% technological innovation, and more than 80% of cities and towns are employed, accounting for more than 90% of the number of enterprises. It can be said that small and medium-sized enterprises constitute the basis of China's real economy, and their huge business flow naturally needs efficient logistics to carry.

However, the logistics needs of small and medium-sized enterprises often have non-standardized attributes, and non-standard means high difficulty, which is another advantage of the whole group over the newcomers, that is, its huge diversified transport capacity, which can meet the various needs of shippers.

Furthermore, the whole gang is aimed at the direct customers of small and medium-sized enterprises. For small and medium-sized enterprises, they are more inclined to contact drivers directly, reduce intermediate links as much as possible, reduce costs and increase efficiency, comply with the trend of direct customers in the industry, and consciously increase the proportion of direct customers and shippers. Q1 in 2024, the proportion of direct customers' performance orders has reached 47%.

Benefiting from the increase in the proportion of direct customers and goods, the fulfillment rate of the whole gang reached 33.5%, a record high.

More importantly, the Manchu gang not only rely on the advantage of scale to attract shippers and drivers to move in, but also continuously improve the platform rules and mechanisms, so that both sides can get a better experience in a more refined way of operation.

For example, the "driver behavior score" mechanism launched by the Manchu gang is composed of multi-dimensional data such as "service commitment score, service score, mileage score, and active score" to guide drivers to provide better service; at the same time, the Manchu gang also launched a "second good goods" mechanism. through the algorithm to identify the matching degree between the source of goods and the driver, and combined with the score of the driver's behavior, the source of goods and the driver are matched efficiently.

Under the dual effect of the continuous increase in the number of users and the higher user stickiness brought by a better mechanism, the certainty of performance growth is becoming higher and higher.

III. Conclusion

China's economic recovery has been recognized by more and more major international banks, and foreign investment has begun to embrace China Stock Exchange again. Against this background, core assets with getting better and better fundamentals are more likely to be favored by the market, and Mangang is one of them.

It is reported that Invesco, the world's top investment management company, has increased its holdings for four consecutive quarters, and many asset management institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, UBS, and Goldman Sachs have also increased their holdings. At the same time, Manbang is also the Chinese stock company with the largest number of positions in Greenwood Jinglin assets in Q1 this year.

Foreign institutions have used real money to cast a "yes" vote for the long-term value improvement of Manchuria, but this may have just begun.