baccarat777| Oil factory quotations are frequently lowered, can peanuts increase in price in the short term?

Source: grain and Oil Market report

Since mid-MayBaccarat777The domestic peanut market continued a slightly weak adjustment trend, and the fluctuation range narrowed somewhat, but the market demand continued to be weak, oil factories spread frequently and unfavorable, the confidence of buyers and sellers in the market was frustrated, the market wait-and-see mood warmed up, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere was light.

The survey shows that at present, the price of peanuts in Shandong Province, the main producing area, is 9000million yuan / ton, with little change in weekly ring ratio, which is down 2300 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. Henan Baishatong rice is 9000million yuan / ton, which is up 250 yuan / ton and 3050 yuan / ton lower than the same period last year. Henan white sand rice produced in Guangdong market, the main sales area, Henan produces white sand rice at 9900,000 yuan / ton, with little change, down 2550 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. The white sand rice produced in Henan province in Guangxi market is 9600 yuan to 9800 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than the previous week and 2800 yuan / ton lower than the same period last year.

Recently, the arrival volume of oil plants is not large, mainly imported peanuts, the transaction is based on quality, and some oil factories frequently lower their acquisition quotations, and the quality control is still strict, which brings some pressure to the market. At present, the mainstream transaction price of peanuts in Zhengyang Luhua Oil Plant is 8500 to 8700 yuan / ton, which is down 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. Qingdao Yihai Jiali Oil Factory suspended the signing of the contract for small rice; Kaifeng Yihai Kerry Oil Plant quoted 8400 yuan / ton for small rice; Feixian China Grain and Oil Factory quoted 8450 yuan / ton; Shandong Junan Xingquan Oil Plant traded 8500 yuan / ton. Xinxiang Luhua Oil Factory and Xiangyang Luhua Oil Plant will stop collection, and the scope of shutdown and shutdown of the oil plant will be further expanded.

At present, the peanut market as a whole is in a stalemate between purchase and sale, the grass-roots shipping willingness is heating up, and the market supply is relatively loose; the main body of market acquisition is still dominated by oil factories, the major oil factories continue to strictly control quality, and the barycenter of transaction prices continues to move downward. some oil factories have stopped receiving one after another, and the weak willingness of oil factories to buy continues to put heavy negative pressure on the market.

Industry insiders analysis, short-term domestic peanut market prices fall basically hopeless, rising there is a certain resistance, the whole will continue to maintain the shock adjustment situation. Positive factors for the market: first, most of the goods in the producing areas have been put into cold storage, and the possibility of concentrated shipment in the short term is relatively small, but there are still months before the new peanuts are on the market, and dealers maintain a high price mentality; second, the late import of peanuts to Hong Kong is not large; third, the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, the market may have a certain holiday demand.

Unfavorable factors: first, due to the weak supply and demand of the market, the participants' attitude towards entering the market is extremely cautious, and their confidence is generally low; second, the contract quotations of several major oil factories have been lowered one after another recently, and the quality control is still relatively strict, and some oil factories continue to suspend their receipts, coupled with the impact of imported oil peanuts, the progress of domestic oil peanut consumption is slow. Third, after entering June, the rising temperature will not be conducive to the storage of peanuts, the distribution link or keep picking on demand, it is expected that it is difficult to close a deal, and the unsold peanuts are easy to rot and deteriorate, affecting the mentality of the peanut market; fourth, the market expects the planting area of peanuts to increase in the new season, mainly due to higher planting income and good seed sales.

Comprehensive analysis, under the influence of frequent pressure from oil factories, the price of oil peanuts shows no signs of improvement; it is suggested that commercial peanuts are still dominated by mining while using, and the decline space is gradually narrowed. In the case of the lack of bright spots in demand, the overall weak trend is expected to be difficult to change, and the focus of the transaction will turn to inventory consumption schedule and weather conditions in the later stage. (the original article was published on page A03 of the grain and oil market newspaper on May 21, 2024)