roulette4fun| The sector rotates as fast as the wind, and the strategy is stable in stages

Stock speculation to see Jin Kirin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap the potential of the theme opportunity!

Source Wind Wande

Since the beginning of the year, the main index of A shares has been rising, but the main line of the market has become more and more blurred. Recently, the speed of plate rotation is comparable to that of electric fans, and the plate market is not sustainable.

On Tuesday (May 21), periodic plates such as precious metals fell sharply, but precious metals and gold jewelry were the day before.Roulette4funLead the rising plate. Even more extreme, the gaming and real estate sectors, which also performed well on Tuesday morning, fell sharply in the afternoon.

At present, the A-share market still does not see incremental funds. On Tuesday, the market turnover was 8019.Roulette4fun60 million yuan, below the 1 trillion yuan mark for 11 consecutive trading days.

/ / dividend index stably wins / /

The dividend index has surpassed the high of three years ago this year, according to Wind. Even if it has been adjusted recently, the dividend index has still outperformed the Wande whole An index and the CSI 300 index in the past three years.

The dividend index is dominated by cyclical stocks, with valuations much lower than their core assets. For a long time, the market did not like cyclical stocks, resulting in long-term low valuations of the sector. Wind dividend Index current PE is 6Roulette4fun.6 the number of PB was only 0.68.

Under the background of unstable global financial environment in recent years, the attributes of undervalued dividend assets, high dividend and stable dividend have been paid more and more attention.

Dividend assets to profitRoulette4funWhen it's over?

Huafu Securities said that from the perspective of "certainty", the conditions for the end of the dividend asset market may be similar to those of the core assets, that is, the profit growth rate of listed companies picks up. Corporate earnings as a nominal variable including price factors, its growth rate and PPI growth rate show a significant positive correlation. Data released on the 11th of this month show that PPI grew by-2.5% year-on-year in April 2024, still in a negative growth range. Therefore, it is believed that the excess return on dividend assets may be expected to continue.

/ / behind the rapid rotation of the plate. / /

The A-share market in 2023 is "strong expectation, weak reality", while this year is "weak expectation, strong reality". The market is constantly careful to confirm the fact of recovery from high-frequency economic data. With the sharp fluctuations in A-shares at the beginning of the year, the pullback of US inflation data, the continuous postponement of Fed interest rate cuts and the frequent recent geopolitical events, investors are more inclined to wait and see.

This week, China and the United States basically do not have high-frequency economic data released, the lack of more clear guidance in the market, it is difficult to form a joint force of funds.

Guotai Junan commented that the current market still has behavior and thinking inertia because of the great uncertainty in the past, which is characterized by weak data and repeated stock market.

The agency believes that the uncertainty of A-shares has decreased significantly, mainly in three aspects:

First, the uncertainty of stock market fluctuations has been reduced. Policy makers recently pointed out that "promoting the stable and healthy development of the capital market is an important embodiment of economic development and governance ability", and the two sessions "enhance the inherent stability of the capital market", implying the bottom line of stock market volatility.

Second, policy uncertainty has been reduced. The policy attitude of boosting domestic demand is more proactive, and the central finance has turned to expanding "issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years" and exploring the central bank buying and selling treasury bonds in the secondary market. The real estate policy with the goal of "digesting stock" points directly to the crux of the problem. large-scale equipment renewal / trade-in is actively promoted. The policy space has been opened and the policy thinking is logical.

Third, economic uncertainty has been reduced. The drag on price inflation has decreased, and the pace of special treasury bond issuance and fiscal expenditure has accelerated, which is expected to promote the formation of physical workload. The decline in uncertainty is the cornerstone of the stock market rally.

/ / A-share ecology is improving / /

Fundamental changes have taken place in the pace of issuing new shares.

Wind data show that, taking the date of online issuance as an example, since the beginning of the year, 35 A-share listed companies have successfully IPO, with a total financing amount of 23.622 billion yuan. Compared with the same period last year, a total of 134 new shares IPO, a sharp decrease of 73.88 per cent compared with the same period last year. The total amount of financing is 162.223 billion yuan, down 85.44 percent this year compared with the same period last year.

Convertible bond financing has also decreased significantly.

According to Wind data, only 10 convertible bonds have been issued so far this year, raising a total of 8.111 billion yuan. Compared with the same period last year, 48, 64.59 billion of convertible bond issuance also fell sharply.

In terms of delisting, listed companies survive the fittest, and the regular delisting work is being carried out in an orderly manner.

Since the beginning of the year, 25 A-share companies have been locked in delisting, of which 10 companies have locked in delisting due to no improvement in their 2023 annual report or issued "non-standard" audit opinions, accounting for 40% of the total.

Wind data show that nine companies have been delisted.

Looking to the future, Huaxin Securities said that in the context of overseas stagflation concerns, Asian foreign exchange fluctuations and geo-risk, the dividend sector under the desolation of assets continues to maintain the allocation of ballast stone, with more internal high-quality style. at the same time, increase the allocation of land chain-related large financial sector game policy expectations.

Guotai Junan believes that the trend of the stock market reflects expected changes, not the direction of the data. The market's acceptance of the decline in uncertainty is gradual, from conservative to open, so the market rhythm starts from low blue chips, and then gradually towards technological growth.