scroogemegawaysslot| Everbright Futures: May 13 Energy and Chemical Daily

Crude oil: geopolitical relaxationScroogemegawaysslotPay attention to whether OPEC extends the production reduction agreement

1. Macro and geographical aspects: during the holiday period, some progress was made in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, the geographical situation in the Middle East showed signs of easing, and the premium on crude oil also fell; however, the latest news the day before yesterday showed that the cease-fire negotiations had changed again, thus driving the oil price to rise to a certain extent. At present, market expectations of Fed interest rate cuts have swayed. After the May 1 interest rate meeting, the Fed as a whole expressed partial doves, and market expectations for two Fed interest rate cuts this year rose again. But recently, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman released hawkish remarks, saying that it was not appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024, and pointed out that there was persistent inflationary pressure in the United States in the first few months of this year, making it the first Fed official to directly rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates this year. In an environment of high interest rates, recent US economic data have shown signs of weakness, with the market worried that the outlook for energy demand may be disturbed, putting some pressure on oil prices.

2. On the supply side: crude oil production by OPEC members in April was roughly the same as the previous month, while three countries, including Iraq, Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, still exceeded their production reduction targets. Russia deepened its production cuts in April, 31% lower than in March.Scroogemegawaysslot.90,000 barrels per day, but still higher than the planned target. OPEC said on Friday that Iraq and Kazakhstan had agreed to make compensatory production cuts for the rest of the year, which exceeded expectations, but that if fully fulfilled, production would fall sharply below the average of the past five years, making it difficult to land. Meanwhile, EIA raised the increase in global crude oil supply this year by 120000 b / d to 970000 b / d in its latest monthly report. In terms of inventories, EIA US commercial crude oil stocks were unexpectedly removed this week, which was better than the accumulated data of API. Gasoline and distillate stocks continued to increase, while refinery operating rates increased and net crude oil imports decreased by nearly 2.5 million barrels. Global oil inventories have continued to increase recently before the peak overseas travel season, but inventory is expected to reach an inflection point in the second quarter as global refineries are overhauled one after another.

3. On the demand side: the latest monthly report released by EIA this month lowered its forecast for demand growth this year by 30, 000 b / d to 920000 b / d, leaving the global crude oil market with a supply gap of only 80, 000 b / d this year, down from the previous forecast of 260000 b / d. Judging from high-frequency data, the weak demand for overseas oil products showed signs of marginal improvement. The extended demand for gasoline production in the United States rebounded to 9.6 million barrels per day, after falling for four consecutive weeks. The extended demand for distillate oil production also rebounded to 20.2636 million barrels per day. On the domestic side, crude oil import demand, especially georefining, is still relatively weak due to diesel consumption. China imported 44.721 million tons of crude oil in April, down 8.8 per cent from the previous month and up 5.5 per cent from a year earlier. Yulong Petrochemical may start production in the middle of the year, having already started purchasing raw materials after obtaining crude oil import quotas, which is expected to support later crude oil demand.

4. Strategic point of view: short-term oil prices fluctuate weakly under the suppression of macro and geographical factors, and there is still no obvious marginal support on the supply and demand side. We are concerned about whether the meeting of OPEC+ on June 1st will extend the current production reduction plan to the second half of this year. At present, the market expects that under the background of oil price correction, OPEC may maintain the production reduction measures from the end of last year to the present.

Fuel oil: the market structure of high and low sulfur has rebounded.

1. On the supply side: on the high-sulfur side, shipping data show that Russian high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in April are expected to be only 1.84 million tons, down 610000 tons from the previous month and 390000 tons less than the same period last year; Iran's April high-sulfur shipments were only 780000 tons, down 270000 tons from the previous month and 100000 tons less than the same period last year. At the low sulfur end, Singapore arbitrage about 2 million-2.2 million tons of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western Hemisphere in April, up from 140-1.7 million tons in March. Exports from Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery remained high, with low-sulfur shipments of 660000 tons in March and 960000 tons in April; in addition, Nigeria's Dangote refinery was gradually put into production this year, which is expected to bring some increase to low-sulfur supply. Domestically, the export quota for the second batch of low-sulfur fuel oil officially issued in 2024 totaled 4 million tons. So far, the export quota for low-sulfur fuel oil in 2024 totaled 12 million tons, an increase of 9.09 percent over the same period last year. According to Jinlianchuang statistics, from January to April 2024, the bonded low-sulfur ship combustion output of Chinese refineries was 5.197 million tons, an increase of 7.11% over the same period last year, and the overall utilization rate of the first batch of export quotas was about 65%.

2. Demand: according to Jinlianchuang import ship date statistics, in April 2024, the volume of crude oil tankers imported by Shandong port refining and traders was about 9.6043 million tons, down 4.55% from the previous month, of which straight-run fuel oil and diluted asphalt arrived at the port of 1.431 million tons and 200000 tons respectively. In May, at least three large refineries in Shandong are planned to be overhauled, and the improvement in overall processing profits is limited, and the upstream space for high-sulfur incoming shipments is expected to be limited. With the advent of high summer temperatures, in order to meet the peak demand for power generation, South Asian countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka may increase their consumption of high-sulfur fuel oil in the coming weeks.

3. Cost: EIA US commercial crude oil inventory was unexpectedly removed this week, which was better than the accumulated data of API. Gasoline and distillate stocks continued to increase, but gasoline production demand stopped falling and rebounding, while refinery operating rate increased, and net crude oil imports decreased by nearly 2.5 million barrels. The latest monthly report released by EIA this month raised its forecast for full-year production to 102.76 million b / d and lowered its forecast for full-year demand growth of 30, 000 b / d to 920000 b / d. The overall correction of the international crude oil market after May Day is under the background of geopolitical premium crowding out. From a fundamental point of view, before the arrival of the peak overseas travel season, global oil inventories have continued to increase recently, but as global refineries have been overhauled one after another, inventory is expected to reach an inflection point in the second quarter. On the supply side, OPEC kept oil production largely unchanged in April, and its members Iraq and Kazakhstan have agreed to make compensatory production cuts for the rest of the year, watching whether the OPEC+ meeting on June 1 will extend the current production cuts into the second half of this year.

4. Strategic point of view: this week, international oil prices fluctuated downward, and Singapore fuel oil prices also fluctuated and fell. From a fundamental point of view, the market structure of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil has rebounded. The flow of low-sulphur arbitrage goods into Singapore from the Western Hemisphere is expected to decrease in May, although demand for low-sulphur downstream is relatively flat. In recent weeks, the supply of high sulfur in Asia has been limited, while refining demand from China and India has remained stable, and the fundamentals of the high sulfur market will continue to be supported. Recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term FU and LU absolute prices will follow the oil price volatility is weak, high-sulfur performance may be stronger than low-sulfur, high-low sulfur price difference will maintain a low level.

Asphalt: supply increment is limited, demand is still weak

1. On the supply side: recently, the pressure on the cost of asphalt has been alleviated. As of this week, the spot paste of diluted asphalt has dropped to-$12 / barrel, an increase of $3.50 from-$8.50 / barrel in early April, but the refinery asphalt processing profit is still in the loss range. Refinery processing profit repair led to a pick-up in the production enthusiasm of some local refineries. According to Longzhong statistics, as of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries this week was 27.0%, an increase of 3.4% over the pre-festival period, and the weekly output of asphalt was 467000 tons, an increase of 13.6% over the pre-festival period. the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample plants totaled 1.18 million tons this week, an increase of 7.7% over last week. The inventory of domestic asphalt stores totaled 2.873 million tons, an increase of 1.5% over last week. The pressure on high social banks is obvious.

2. Demand: although the demand has rebounded recently, it is still lower than the level of the same period in previous years. The rigid demand in the northern region remains stable and some refineries release contracts, but the large-scale continuous precipitation weather in the south affects terminal construction. According to Longzhong information statistics, as of May 6, the weekly shipments of the old samples of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers totaled 280000 tons, an increase of 3.9% compared with the previous week, and the weekly shipments of new samples totaled 317000 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt is 6.1%, which is 1.0% lower than that before the festival.

3. Cost: EIA US commercial crude oil inventory was unexpectedly removed this week, which was better than the accumulated data of API. Gasoline and distillate stocks continued to increase, but gasoline production demand stopped falling and rebounding, while refinery operating rate increased, and net crude oil imports decreased by nearly 2.5 million barrels. The latest monthly report released by EIA this month raised its forecast for full-year production to 102.76 million b / d and lowered its forecast for full-year demand growth of 30, 000 b / d to 920000 b / d. The overall correction of the international crude oil market after May Day is under the background of geopolitical premium crowding out. From a fundamental point of view, before the arrival of the peak overseas travel season, global oil inventories have continued to increase recently, but as global refineries have been overhauled one after another, inventory is expected to reach an inflection point in the second quarter. On the supply side, OPEC kept oil production largely unchanged in April, and its members Iraq and Kazakhstan have agreed to make compensatory production cuts for the rest of the year, watching whether the OPEC+ meeting on June 1 will extend the current production cuts into the second half of this year.

4. Strategic point of view: this week, international oil prices fluctuated downwards, while asphalt disk and spot prices also fluctuated weakly. Although the diluted asphalt discount has dropped recently, the profit repair of refinery processing asphalt is limited. The refinery production schedule in May is still on the low side compared with the same period last year, and the actual output in April is also lower than the previous production schedule. In April, the total domestic asphalt output was 2.2846 million tons, down 3.93% from the previous month; year-on-year decline of 17.32%; with the increase of diluted asphalt flow in the future, asphalt supply is expected to rise; there has been no obvious sign of improvement on the demand side. Post-holiday asphalt demand is weak, although the supply increment is limited, but the inventory pressure is greater. Due to the recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term BU absolute price will be weaker with the oil price volatility.

Rubber: Tianjiao continues to go to the warehouse, and the price of rubber has limited room to fall.

1. At the supply end, the output of new rubber is lower than expected. Although the domestic production areas ushered in rainfall, the output of raw materials is on the low side. In Thailand, the northeast and north cut normally, but the price of raw materials under low production has stopped falling and rebounded. Thailand is about to enter the rainy season from the dry season, which may be conducive to glue production. The average price of glue is 73.93 baht / kg, up 1.51% from the previous period; the average price of cup glue is 55.37 baht / kg, up 2.40% from the previous period. Imports fell year on year. In April 2024, China imported a total of 523000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 25.4 percent from 701000 tons in the same period in 2023. From January to April 2024, China imported a total of 2.329 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 15.6 percent from 2.76 million tons in the same period in 2023. Thai rubber production fell 0.7 per cent year-on-year to 1.019 million tons (1.004 million tons of raw rubber) in the first quarter of 2024, compared with 1.026 million tons (1.011 million tons of raw rubber) in the same period in 2023.

2. On the demand side, after May Day, the production capacity of enterprises is restored and the towing start-up load is lower. The starting load of semi-steel tires in domestic tire enterprises this week was 76.09%, 0.42% lower than last week and 5.33% higher than the same period last year. The start-up load of all-steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises this week was 49.19%, 0.81 percentage points lower than last week and 14.71 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of the week of May 10, the inventory of finished steel tire in domestic tire enterprises was 43 days, with a flat weekly ratio, while the inventory of semi-steel tire finished products was 30 days, an increase of 1 day compared with the previous week. The terminal market is slowly recovering. In April 2024, China's heavy truck market sales were about 87000 vehicles, up 5 per cent from the same period last year, an increase of about 4000 vehicles compared with the same period last year. In April, retail sales in the national passenger car market were 1.532 million, down 5.7% from the same period last year and 9.4% from the previous month. Retail sales have totaled 6.364 million so far this year, an increase of 8.0% over the same period last year.

3. Inventory: Tianjiao inventory continues to go to the warehouse, and the extent of removal of dark glue inventory is greater than that of light glue. As of May 5, 2024, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.3811 million tons, a decrease of 26000 tons, or 1.85%, compared with the previous period. The total stock of dark glue in China was 828400 tons, down 2.49% from the previous period. The total stock of light-colored glue in China was 552800 tons, down 0.86 per cent from the previous period. As of the week of May 03, the general trade warehouse inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 362200 tons, a decrease of 7900 tons, or 2.13%, compared with the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 111400 tons, a decrease of 1600 tons, or 1.41%, compared with the previous period. The total inventory is 473600 tons, a decrease of 9500 tons compared with the previous period. As of 05-10, Tianjiao warehouse receipt was 216640 tons, an increase of 360 tons compared with the previous week. The total inventory of the exchange was 216771 tons, down 330 tons from the previous week. By the end of 05-10, the No. 20 plastic warehouse order was 136078 tons, down 102 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of the exchange was 141018 tons, down 2621 tons from the previous week.

4. on the whole, the supply at home and abroad is in the early stage of cutting, the output of raw materials is less, drought factors have been falsified under recent rainfall, domestic raw material prices have fallen, and overseas raw material prices are still supported. On the demand side, tire construction has declined to a certain extent this week, and the recovery of the terminal car market has been slow. Heavy truck sales increased slightly in April compared with the same period last year, but only higher than 59800 vehicles in February; detailed rules have been issued one after another for "trade-in". The role of boosting tire demand in the short term remains to be seen. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, Tianjiao continues to go to the warehouse, and the extent of removing the stock of dark glue is greater than that of light glue, and the support for glue 20 is stronger than that of RU. Thailand has recently begun to harvest, but is about to enter the rainy season, pay attention to the extreme weather in the producing areas and the timing of follow-up storage. Butadiene rubber start-up fell, output shrank, downstream semi-steel tire support stabilized, butadiene rubber price shock was strong.

Polyester: downstream polyester demand is weakening, and the overhaul of polyester raw material plant is coming to an end.

1. This week, PX prices fell first and then rebounded, and the shock weakened. Absolute prices fell 1.2 per cent month-on-month to $1012 a tonne of CFR on Friday. The weekly average price fell 1.3 per cent month-on-month to $1018 a tonne. PTA prices fluctuated lower this week, with the spot weekly average at 5825 yuan / ton, down 1.6 per cent from the previous month. The center of gravity of the inner plate of ethylene glycol fell back this week, and the spot low reached around 4300 yuan / ton on Friday.

2. On the supply side, as of May 10, the start-up load of Asian PX was 72.7%, an increase of 2.7% over the previous period, while the start-up load of PX in China was 79.2%, an increase of 7.0% over the previous period. After May Day, the PTA plant was overhauled, Jiaxing Petrochemical 220, Hengli Dalian 220, Honggang Sinopec 250, Weilian Chemical 250, Hengli Huizhou 250PTA Plant overhauled, and the load of PTA plant was reduced to 72%, with a previous value of 82.2%. As of May 9, the overall working load of ethylene glycol in Chinese mainland area was 58.62% (down 0.8% from the previous period), of which the starting load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to ethylene glycol was 66.99% (6.68% higher than the previous period).

3. On the demand side, due to the influence of boiler retrofit, plant failure and other factors, the shutdown of the plant was more concentrated in the first ten days of May, coupled with the production reduction of the bottle chip device in the early stage, the polyester load was obviously reduced this week. As of Friday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 89.3%, with a previous value of 93.1%. The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9 show that the stable foreign trade policy continues to be effective, overseas importers are gradually entering the inventory replenishment cycle, and positive factors such as a boost in corporate confidence have driven the decline in textile and clothing exports in April to be much narrower than that of the previous month, and exports as a whole are showing a recovery trend. From January to April 2024, textile and clothing exports totaled US $89.84 billion, up 0.6 per cent (the first 1.8 per cent), of which textile exports totaled US $44.28 billion, up 1.2 per cent, and clothing exports totaled US $45.56 billion, unchanged from the same period last year. In April, textile and clothing exports totaled US $23.93 billion, down 3.4%, up 15% from the previous month, of which textile exports were US $12.19 billion, down 2.5%, up 17.4% from the previous month, and clothing exports were US $11.74 billion, down 4.4% and up 12.6% from the previous month.

4, on the whole, PTA entered the spring inspection cycle, and several sets of large-scale equipment started to be overhauled. The maintenance time varies from 14 to 45 days. Next week, 3.6 million tons of new materials are expected to be overhauled, and the overall maintenance efforts are strengthened, so that the extent of TA removal is more convergent than expected. At present, TA social inventory goes to the warehouse, polyester factory pre-replenishment inventory accumulates, and the range of Hong Kong inventory removal is even greater. But the downstream polyester support is also weak, the overall polyester start-up load decreased by 3.4%, the start-up level is less than 90%, the overall production and marketing of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester is weak, there is no previous pulse production and marketing stage. The decline in exports of textiles and clothing in April was narrower than that in March. Under the drag of insufficient cost support and weak demand, the price of polyester raw materials will fall, but the centralized maintenance of TA will improve the supply and demand structure of TA, and the extent of removal is still considerable. From the perspective of ethylene glycol, the start-up of coal chemical industry rose to a high level in the same period, but the overall start-up of ethylene glycol remained negative. From the April output, it can be seen that the output of oil-to-ethylene glycol decreased significantly compared with the previous month. Downstream polyester start-up load dropped significantly, but ethylene glycol port inventory is still being removed, it is expected that short-term ethylene glycol low-level finishing.

LLDPE: short-term financial impact, fundamentals are still weak

1. Supply: the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene enterprises increased by 1.31% to 79.36%, the output increased by 1.33% to 516200 tons, and the loss of plant maintenance decreased by 13.60% to 88600 tons.

2. Demand: downstream comprehensive operating rate decreased by 2.54% to 43.73%, of which agricultural film operating rate decreased by 26.98% to 18.46%, packaging film operating rate decreased by 1.04% to 52.15%, hollow operating rate increased by 0.80% to 43.88%, injection molding rate increased by 1.75% to 55.24%, and pipe opening rate decreased by 7.24% to 36.33%. The number of days ordered for agricultural film decreased by 22.91% to 4.98 days from the previous month, while that for packaging film increased by 2.83% to 8.00 days from the previous month.

3. Inventory: the inventory of production enterprises rose 12.79% to 542400 tons from the previous month, of which the inventory of two oil increased by 19.10% to 440900 tons, the inventory of coal enterprises decreased by 8.31% to 101500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.93% to 672800 tons Downstream agricultural film inventory decreased by 14.69% to 24400 tons, pipe inventory decreased by 3.20% to 24400 tons, and packaging film inventory increased by 0.44% to 9.11 days.

4. Raw materials: the spot price of Brent crude oil dropped 4.31% to 82.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous month, the price of naphtha dropped 2.93% to 679.01 yuan / ton, the price of ethane rose 0.39% to 3620.00 yuan / ton, the price of thermal coal rose 1.61% to 843.33 yuan / ton, and the price of methanol decreased 0.13% to 2646.67 yuan / ton.

5. Summary: the trend of polyethylene is relatively strong this week, which is relatively abnormal both from the perspective of fundamentals and valuation. Although the loss of production profits will support the price, on the one hand, the decline in the price of crude oil will warm up the profit. On the other hand, the situation of oversupply will suppress the price. Therefore, it may be explained that the strength of domestic macro expectations after the end of the holiday has led to the relative strength of polyethylene away from crude oil prices and fundamentals this week. We believe that the impact of financial factors is relatively limited, follow-up transactions will return to the fundamentals, with the gradual reduction of maintenance volume, demand slows down, the pressure on the supply side will gradually appear, while the higher social inventory still does not show a rapid downward trend, and to a certain extent falsifies the expectation of better demand, so it is expected that short-term LLDPE prices will be dominated by weak consolidation. Pay attention to the upstream refinery maintenance and the changes of social inventory.

PP: there are more plans for new capacity, pay attention to the realization of the situation.

1. Supply: the capacity utilization rate of polypropylene enterprises increased by 0.29% to 75.54%, the total output increased by 1.19% to 650400 tons, and the loss of plant maintenance decreased by 3.00% to 122400 tons.

2. Demand: the downstream comprehensive operating rate decreased by 1.15% to 51.56%, of which the plastic knitting rate decreased by 3.65% to 42.20%, the injection molding rate increased by 1.75% to 55.24%, the BOPP rate decreased by 0.10% to 61.64%, and the pipe operating rate increased by 0.33% to 51.00%.

3. Inventory: the inventory of upstream production enterprises rose 17.40% to 583000 tons from the previous month, including 10.93% to 96400 tons from the previous month, 39.64% to 157100 tons from the drawing enterprises, 12.61% to 152700 tons from the middle reaches traders and 9.98% to 67200 tons from the previous month. Downstream plastic-woven inventories fell 6.48 per cent to 967.37 tonnes, while BOPP inventories rose 3.82 per cent to 1238.40 tonnes.

4. Raw materials: the spot price of Brent crude oil dropped 4.31% to 82.10 US dollars per barrel, the price of naphtha decreased 0.78% to 8080.00 yuan / ton, the price of propane rose 0.00% to 5180.00 yuan / ton, the price of thermal coal rose 1.96% to 846.25 yuan / ton, and the price of methanol decreased 0.13% to 2646.67 yuan / ton.

5. Summary: Zhou polypropylene is more affected by funds, and the overall trend does not follow the crude oil as before. we think that the duration of this influence is relatively limited, and then with the gradual increase of supply pressure and the possibility of lower demand, there will be a certain accumulation at the inventory end. If the oil price can not provide support, short-term polypropylene still has the possibility of downward repair. At present, the core factor that determines the L-PP price difference comes from the landing of the production plan. The early market expects that the new production capacity of PP can be realized as scheduled, which leads to the continued strength of L-PP price spread. although PDH profits continue to recover, they are still in a state of loss, and the profit level is the same as that of the same period last year, so if the new production capacity is not landed as planned, the L-PP price spread may be weaker. In the follow-up, we will focus on the release time of new production capacity and the change of injection molding operation rate.

PVC: the demand is stable and good, so we should not be too pessimistic.

1. Supply: the operating rate of PVC enterprises increased by 3.19% to 82.50%, of which the operating rate of calcium carbide method increased by 4.94% to 82.45%, and that of ethylene process decreased by 1.57% to 82.66%. Plant maintenance loss decreased by 11.55% to 111200 tons Total production rose 3.22% month-on-month to 468900 tons, of which calcium carbide production rose 4.96% to 349700 tons, while ethylene production decreased 1.57% to 119300 tons.

2. Demand: the operating rate of downstream enterprises decreased by 0.62% to 53.27% from the previous month, of which the pipe operating rate decreased by 2.40% to 50.94%, the profile operating rate increased by 0.00% to 44.44%, and the production and marketing rate increased by 5.98% to 146.62%.

3. Inventory: the inventory of upstream enterprises decreased by 1.88% to 379900 tons, of which the inventory of calcium carbide enterprises increased by 0.39% to 267900 tons, that of ethylene enterprises decreased by 6.90% to 112000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.37% to 598700 tons.

4. Raw materials: the price of thermal coal rose 1.96% to 846.25 yuan / ton, the price of calcium carbide rose 1.47% to 2587.50 yuan / ton, the price of naphtha decreased 1.08% to 8055.25 yuan / ton, and the price of methanol rose 0.05% to 2651.25 yuan / ton.

5. Summary: the upstream refinery maintenance equipment has been reduced, resulting in a sharp pick-up in output, which is currently at a five-year high level, but the performance on the demand side is good, the operating rate of pipe remains stable, the operating rate of profiles continues to rise, and the export performance is good at the same time. Inventory, affected by the increase in production, the upstream refinery to slow down the speed of storage, this week a small accumulation of storage, social inventory has not changed much, there is still greater pressure. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand, and the contradiction of the long-short game is the high level of social inventory, but the upstream refinery inventory actually dropped more than last year, while spot prices are at the low level of nearly five years, as long as macro sentiment remains stable, demand will be stable and good, and it is unlikely that refineries will significantly reduce prices, so it is expected that short-term PVC price shocks are strong, focusing on changes in social inventory.

Methanol: short-term MTO has negative feedback expectation, but total inventory is still low.

1. Supply: on the domestic side, there are more new overhaul and production reduction devices this week, but the restart devices are limited, resulting in a decrease in weekly mainland production; on the import side, the number of arrivals to Hong Kong has rebounded this week.

2, demand: the operating rate of MTO plant has declined as expected, while the operating rate of traditional downstream has basically decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined slightly, but it is still good compared with the same period last year.

3. Inventory: on the mainland side, with the end of holiday replenishment and a slight weakening of demand, the actual inventory in the mainland has increased or decreased; on the port side, the port inventory has increased due to the impact of the increase in port volume, but the floating warehouse has decreased by a larger extent. resulting in a weakening of actual port inventory. Overall, the mainland inventory increased more, so that the total inventory increased month-on-month, but still low compared with the same period last year.

Summary: on the supply side, there are still more maintenance devices than restart devices next week, and the domestic supply is still expected to decrease. From the perspective of the internal and external price difference, the price of China's arrival to Hong Kong is low, and it is expected that the volume of arrival will be reduced, and the overall supply will tend to tighten. On the demand side, the current MTO profit is not good, and the expectation of lower construction is still high. Although some of the traditional downstream profits are better, the overall demand is limited, and it is expected that the comprehensive demand is still weaker than the previous month. In terms of inventory, although supply-side expectations are weak, short-term downstream demand expectations are not strong, so mainland inventories may still have cumulative pressure, while the overall inventory pressure on the port side is not great, and the total inventory has a small cumulative expectation. Generally speaking, the overall inventory level of methanol is low at present, and although the demand is expected to weaken periodically, it is still better than last year, so methanol does not have the conditions to fall sharply in the long run, so it is treated with strong shock.

Soda ash: continuously pay attention to the changing range of the supply side

Soda ash futures prices fluctuated widely after the May Day holiday. As of May 10, the main 09 contract closed at 2172 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 1.41%. The spot market is stable after the May Day holiday, and the price of heavy alkali delivery in Shahe area is maintained around 2150-2250 yuan / ton. After the festival, the quotations of traders fluctuated frequently, the price range of heavy alkali in North and East China was about 2100-2200 yuan / ton, and there was a transaction of 2150 yuan / ton in some areas.

From the supply point of view, after the May Day holiday, the maintenance and start-up load of some alkali plants fluctuated, with the industry's weekly operating rate of 86.40%, a decrease of 2.39 percentage points compared with the previous week. The weekly output of soda ash is 720200 tons, a decrease of 2.69% compared with the previous week, and the overall supply level of soda ash is at a stage low. In mid-late May, there are maintenance plans for enterprises in Chongqing, Shandong and other areas, and in the later period, with the continuous rise of weather temperature, supply-side production is still uncertain, market disturbance still exists, and seasonal maintenance is expected to continue to strengthen in the later stage.

The demand side as a whole remains high. On the one hand, downstream photovoltaic glass in the production of daily melting continues to increase, float glass production line cold repair, ignition alternately, the industry in the production of daily melting remains high. As of May 11, the total daily melting volume of the two is 283300 tons, equivalent to the rigid demand consumption of soda ash is still the highest compared with the same period last year. On the other hand, recently, some low-inventory downstream enterprises replenish the stock of raw materials, but there is still resistance to the high-priced supply. This week, the apparent consumption of soda ash fell 9% to 689500 tons, and the production and marketing rate fell 6.71 percentage points to 95.74%. This week, soda ash enterprise inventories were 891100 tons, up 3.57% from the previous week, and 63.68% higher than the same period last year.

On the whole, there is still uncertainty in the later stage of soda ash supply, and with the continuous strengthening of seasonal maintenance expectations, the main factors of disk and market mentality in the future are still more favorable. However, the price of soda ash futures is also affected by macro sentiment, commodity market and industrial mentality, and it is expected that the short-term trend will still be dominated by interval shocks, and the decline in supply from a medium-term perspective will continue to support the market. pay attention to the intensity of enterprise maintenance and news disturbance.

Urea: urea is still relatively strong in the short term, and there may be an inflection point in the last ten days.

Urea futures prices rose first and then suppressed in the week after the May Day holiday. On May 10, the urea futures contract closed at 2086 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 1.66%. The spot market has a strong trend, and prices in all mainstream regions have risen one after another. as of May 11, the market price of urea in Linyi, Shandong Province was 2330 yuan / ton, an increase of 70 yuan / ton compared with May 6; and the market price of urea in Shangqiu area of Henan Province was 2320, up 50 yuan / ton from May 6.

Both ends of urea supply and demand are supported. From the supply point of view, after the May Day holiday, a number of urea plants were overhauled, and the daily output of the industry declined rapidly. The daily output of urea on May 11 was 176600 tons, down 6.81 percent from 189500 tons on May 6. Next week, some enterprises still have maintenance plans, and according to parking time estimates, the industry's daily output is expected to drop to around 170000 tons. If unplanned failures and short stops are superimposed during the period, the level of Nissan in the industry is expected to decline further, and the supply-side good support will remain in the short term. It should be noted that after the middle and late ten days, the maintenance enterprises will gradually resume production, and the support on the supply side will also be weakened.

The urea demand side also followed up smoothly after the May Day holiday. In terms of agricultural demand, rice and corn base fertilizer replenishment demand release, industrial demand, the downstream compound fertilizer industry ushered in the peak season of high nitrogen fertilizer production after the May Day holiday, boosting urea rigid demand consumption. Industrial and agricultural demand is advancing at the same time, and the apparent consumption of urea is 1.3078 million tons this week, which is still high compared with the same period last year. However, due to the resurgence of resistance in the middle and lower reaches after the price rise, urea table demand and production and sales volume fell slightly by 1.09% and 0.13%, respectively. According to previous expectations, industrial demand such as compound fertilizer may continue until mid-or even late, agricultural demand is expected to continue until the middle of the week, and demand-side support will remain next week, but we need to pay attention to changes in procurement sentiment.

Under the dual effect of declining supply and strong demand support, the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. This week, the total inventory of urea enterprises is 502800 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week, which is relatively limited. Although the market transaction atmosphere has declined in the second half of the week, the manufacturers still have sufficient orders to be issued, and the short-term price reduction is insufficient.

The main factor affecting the market this week is still policy change. As the domestic urea is still mainly guided by ensuring supply and stable price, the room for price increase is relatively limited. During the week, some main bodies of the spot market issued risk reminders, and market sentiment fell somewhat.

Overall, urea fundamentals are still supported, and market prices are expected to remain high and firm. After the middle and late ten days, the busy season of wheat harvest in some parts of North China, urea agricultural demand may enter a gap period, when the market may usher in a phased inflection point. Pay attention to the changes in supply and demand, domestic policy orientation and the overall trend of the commodity market.

Glass: policy support for continuous improvement of demand expectations

After the May Day holiday, the bottom of glass futures prices continued to move up, with the weekly increase of the main 09 contract reaching 4.06%. The price center of gravity in the spot market has moved up, with an average price of 1693 yuan / ton in the domestic float glass market on May 11, up 4 yuan / ton from last week.

Support for real estate policy has been further enhanced this week. Hangzhou and Xi'an have completely abolished housing restrictions, boosting market expectations for future glass demand, which has become the main driver of the recent strengthening of glass futures prices.

From a fundamental point of view, the change range of supply and demand in the glass market is limited. This week, the industry operating rate was 84.4%, down 0.14 percentage points from the previous week. Glass daily melting volume in production due to fluctuations in some production lines, the overall level has fallen, but the supply remains high compared with the same period last year. As of May 11, the daily melting capacity of the glass industry was 173800 tons, down 600 tons from the first working day after the holiday. After the May Day holiday, the spot turnover of glass also remained high. The production and sales rate in the mainstream Shahe area fluctuated in the range of 136% to 228%, while the rest of the region could also reach 100% or more, which has become another major factor supporting the market in the near future. It should be noted that although spot production and sales of glass remained high over the weekend, some areas have weakened. In addition, supported by high turnover, glass enterprise inventory fell by only 0.99% this week, which reflects that the real demand is still limited.

Overall, the rise in glass futures prices is mainly due to policy support and expected improvement in future demand. Supported by high transactions, glass factory quotations and traders' quotations have been further raised, and it is expected that short-term glass futures prices will continue the trend of strong operation. It should be noted that it may take time for the real estate industry to pick up to the implementation of glass demand, and the persistence of high spot glass transactions also needs further observation, and continue to pay attention to the terminal real estate demand, the mentality of the industrial chain and the trend of related varieties in the futures market.