flowerfortunesmegaways|日本“突袭”外汇市场，日元160是最后防线！短线走势分析与未来展望

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Under the dual influence of the latest policy statement of the Federal Reserve and the suspected intervention of the Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange marketFlowerfortunesmegawaysThe short-term volatility of the yen has become the focus of global financial markets. This article will deeply explore the current market dynamics of the Japanese yen and provide a comprehensive analysis of the future trend.

The yen fell against the dollar on Thursday, reversing direction after a sudden surge on Wednesday. Traders and analysts attributed yesterday's sharp rise in the yen to Japanese authorities' intervention.

As of press time, the dollar is up 0% against the yen.Flowerfortunesmegaways.43% reported 155Flowerfortunesmegaways.258, giving up about half of the increase after yesterday's late-day rally. The yen rose sharply from about 157.55 to 153 against the dollar in about 30 minutes late Wednesday.

The dollar / yen was calm overnight after the US stock market closed and the Fed's monetary policy meeting ended a few hours ago. The dollar was already on the defensive, and Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell confirmed the central bank's policy easing trend, but reiterated that strong inflation meant it might be some time before interest rates were cut.

Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne, said Japan's choice to intervene at this time caught the market by surprise because it was clear that it took place in the US session and on the same day as the FOMC meeting to take advantage of the weakening dollar. The sneak attack was actually a sign that Japan's Ministry of Finance wanted to punish speculators and issued a warning against shorting the yen.

Makoto Kanda, financial officer in charge of foreign exchange policy at Japan's Ministry of Finance, said he would not comment on whether the Japanese authorities had intervened in the foreign exchange market.

The dollar is still up more than 10 per cent against the yen this year as traders delayed expectations of the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, while the Bank of Japan hinted at a slow further tightening after raising rates in March for the first time since 2007.

The spread between US and Japanese 10-year Treasury yields was 371bp, lifting the dollar to a 34-year high of Y160.245 on Monday, before the yen rebounded sharply. Official figures show that this is due to Japan's intervention totaling about $35 billion.

Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordic Union Bank, said he believes intervention alone will not limit the trend of the dollar against the yen. The Bank of Japan is still reluctant to raise benchmark interest rates.FlowerfortunesmegawaysI expect the market to test one of the reasons for the upside of the dollar against the yen.

Takatoshi Ito, a professor at Columbia University and a former official of Japan's Ministry of Finance, said in an interview with Reuters on Thursday that Japanese authorities may have intervened in the foreign exchange market to imply that their bottom line against the yen against the dollar is Y160.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as expected, and Chairman Colin Powell stressed that it would take "longer than expected" for policy makers to be sure that inflation would return to the downward trend and move towards the 2% target. At the same time, he said the risk of further rate hikes was "unlikely".

Analysts and institutions' views on the trend of the yen

Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Bank of Australia, said the Fed still believes that the next rate cut is much more likely than a rate hike, and the door to a rate cut is open.

Hirofumi Suzuki, chief foreign exchange strategist at SMBC, pointed out that even foreign exchange intervention would not change the depreciation trend of the yen. In the medium to long term, the development of the Fed's monetary policy remains the most important.

Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, commented that the Ministry of Finance, through the Bank of Japan, re-sold dollars to stabilize the yen, and that the Japanese government was using its huge amount of $1.2 trillion to profit from the dollars bought back in 2000.

Daisaku Ueno, chief foreign exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said there was no doubt that Japan's Ministry of Finance had intervened and officials had made Y160 their "last line of defence".

The short-term volatility of the yen highlights the uncertainty in global financial markets. When making investment decisions, investors should pay close attention to the policy movements of the Federal Reserve, the possible intervention of the Japanese authorities, and other global economic factors. Despite the fluctuations, the long-term trend and market fundamentals of the yen, as one of the world's major currencies, are still worthy of attention.