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Source: market capitalization Fengyun

The price of silicon wafers is a top priority.

Author | Market capitalization Fengyun Fund Research Department

Editor | rookie

On May 22, under the influence of the symposium on the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry the day before, the photovoltaic plate set off a rising tide.

King Kong Photovoltaic (300093Playblackjackonlineforrealmoneynodeposit.SZ), Oriental Sunrise (300118)Playblackjackonlineforrealmoneynodeposit.SZ) achieved 20% limit, more than 20 shares such as TCL Central (002129.SZ), Qingyuan shares (603628.SH), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), etc., rose by more than 10%, and the industry's leading companies, Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) and Tongwei shares (600438.SH), all achieved volume increases.

Several photovoltaic ETF rose by more than 6 per cent on May 22nd.

(source: Choice data, market capitalization APP tabulation)

Since the "carbon neutralization" logic of 2020-2021, after the photovoltaic plate ushered in the highlight moment of the plate, due to the rapid expansion of production capacity in the industrial chain and the marginal decline in the growth rate of installed demand, resulting in a situation of oversupply in the industry. then evolved into the current product prices continue to fall, leading to the situation of losses in the industry.

Photovoltaic plate many stocks from the high point of "waist chopping" and then "waist chopping".

(source: Choice data)

So, are there any positive factors in the photovoltaic sector after falling for nearly two years?Playblackjackonlineforrealmoneynodeposit?

Sales growth can not hide the decline in performance

Photovoltaic power generation is a process of converting solar energy into electric energy by using the photovoltaic effect of semiconductor materials.

With the continuous improvement of environmental awareness, solar energy, as a clean energy, has received more and more attention, so the photovoltaic industry should be paid attention to by the market in recent years.

In the past decade, relying on technological development and large-scale development, the global investment cost of photovoltaic power stations has decreased by about 79%, and the cost of kilowatt-hour electricity has dropped by about 82%.PlayblackjackonlineforrealmoneynodepositHis power supply variety has become one of the most economical main power supply varieties in the world.

According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, domestic photovoltaic installed 216.3GW increased by 147% in 2023, overseas photovoltaic installed 173.7GW increased by 25%, and global photovoltaic installed 390GW increased by 70% in 2023.

Huachuang Securities also predicts that photovoltaic installation will continue to increase this year, and the number of new photovoltaic installations worldwide is expected to reach 460-470GW in 2024, an increase of about 19% over the same period last year.

(source: Choice data, Huachuang Securities Research Institute)

However, on the basis of the rapid growth of photovoltaic installation, the photovoltaic sector in the investment market is very depressed, the core reason is that the price of the industrial chain continues to fall, and the increment can not make up for the loss caused by the price decline.

According to data disclosed by the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association on May 15 and May 16, both polysilicon prices and single crystal wafer prices have continued to decline over the past week. Among them, silicon, the core raw material of the photovoltaic industry, has dropped by as much as 25% in the past five months.

(source: Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China Post Securities Research Institute)

The rise of raw materials leads to the continuous decline of product gross profit margin, which in turn affects the performance of companies in the photovoltaic industry.

Opportunity in the dark

Although the photovoltaic industry has experienced a "dark moment" for nearly two years, with the strong supervision of financing and the spontaneous adjustment of the market, the photovoltaic industry chain still has investment value, and photovoltaic companies with stable performance are relatively good investment targets.

To this end, Feng Yunjun combed out the 17 photovoltaic companies on the market that deducted non-net profits increased by more than 20% in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period last year.

The following companies' business is mainly concentrated in photovoltaic auxiliary materials and equipment, most of which are relatively small in scale and have not performed well this year.

In addition to photovoltaic auxiliary materials and equipment, the photovoltaic industry chain also includes solar panel manufacturing, module manufacturing, system integration and photovoltaic power station construction and other links, investors can also pay attention to photovoltaic ETF, its upstream and downstream industries at a glance.

At present, the indexes tracking the photovoltaic industry are the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151.CSI) and the China Securities Photovoltaic leading 30 Index (931798.CSI) respectively. Most of the photovoltaic ETF tracks the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, which covers a wider range and can better explain the trend of the whole photovoltaic industry chain.