newslotgames| GTC Zehui Capital: Predicts that oil prices will fall to US$70 in the third quarter

Due to demand concerns and geopolitical risksNewslotgamesOil prices have fallen sharply to a three-month low. According to the GTC Zehui Capital Survey, US crude oil stocks decreased last week.Newslotgames136.Newslotgames.2000 barrels, below Wall Street's expectations of 1.43 million barrels. Us crude oil stocks surged 7.3 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly increase since February, but fell less than expected. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates has increased its production capacity, and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company says it can produce 4.85 million barrels of oil a day, up from 4.65 million barrels a day at the end of last year.

Some on Wall Street have become more pessimistic about the outlook for oil prices. Analysts at GTC Zehui Capital warned investors against speculative buying and suggested selling to take advantage of any rebound. Analysts said concerns about geopolitical risks in the Middle East had abated, with investors turning their attention to looser fundamentals. Although crude oil prices are currently down more than $10 a barrel, GTC still believes that the right strategy to strike a balance between geopolitical risk and loose fundamentals is to sell any rebound.

Oil prices are expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter, slightly higher than the current Brent price of $83 a barrel, but will fall to $74 in the third quarter.

Still, the energy industry is doing well. In the past month, energy stocks have lost some momentum, and the SPDR fund in the energy selection industry has fallen-3% in the past 30 days.Newslotgames.6%, while the S & P 500 index rose 1.2%. Still, the industry is up 11.9 per cent so far this year, compared with a benchmark return of 9.5 per cent for the big market. Although short interest in the oilfield services industry is high, traders shorting oil and gas stocks accounts for only 2.65 per cent of outstanding shares.

Overall, the energy industry as a whole is still performing well against the backdrop of falling oil prices, and investors are still concerned about the balance between loose fundamentals and geopolitical risks despite some market volatility.

Analysts at GTC Zehui Capital believe that demand concerns about oil prices have been exaggerated and that oil prices are well below OPEC's expectations. This means that at the OPEC ministerial meeting in June, consideration may be given to extending production cuts for at least a month.

GTC Zehui Capital conducted an unreasonable survey of traders, citing the decline in U. S. transport fuel demand as a major concern. However, GTC Zehui Capital points out that there is a systematic bias in the estimate of US fuel demand and that real demand may grow unexpectedly.

Commodity analysts pointed out that OPEC+ still had room to increase production in the third quarter, which would not disrupt the global oil balance, and that the global market could easily absorb UAE production.

In addition, India's oil demand remained healthy, rising 6.3 per cent in April from a year earlier, especially gasoline demand up 14.1 per cent from a year earlier. GTC Zehui Capital forecasts that India's oil demand will continue to grow in 2024, down from April, but still significantly faster than the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast.

Source: network