sttippoker| Monthly exchange of styrene 07 contract: small accumulation is expected and the upstream pure benzene import window may continue to open

News summary

Styrene 07 contract rose 1 per cent this weeksttippoker.95%sttippoker, pure benzene was slightly removed from the warehouse, and styrene was slightly removed from the warehouse. Large-scale styrene installations in the United States have restarted, overseas supplies have rebounded, and domestic import profits may rebound. Downstream demand is weak, and terminal white goods production and sales diverge. Recommended strategy: The main contract is valued at 9,100 - 9,600 yuan, and it is short on highssttippoker; Cross-variety arbitrage to reduce the EB-BZ spread. Risk warning: equipment maintenance, aromatic oil regulation disturbance, export growth, and heating geographical risks.

Newsletter text

The Styrene 07 contract performed solidly this week, recording a 1.5 percentsttippoker.95% increase, the main force of month-to-month exchange led to strong price shocks, and the basis was steadily above 100 yuan.

The trading volume of the main contract dropped significantly by 100,000 lots this week. At the same time, the number of open positions increased by approximately 91,100 lots month-on-month, indicating the market's continued interest in styrene. The price fluctuation range during the week is 9638 to 9261 points.

The supply and demand forecast for pure benzene and styrene in June shows that both de-warehousing and de-warehousing coexist. If the Beijing-Expo device is delayed, the supply and demand of styrene are expected to balance, which is looser than in May. In terms of global supply, the two major styrene units in the United States are expected to restart in early June, and Asian units will also resume one after another, putting pressure on domestic prices.

With the increase in overseas supply, styrene import profits may increase. If domestic styrene prices rise, it may attract more imports. The arrival schedule forecast for the first half of June is worthy of attention. On the pure benzene supply side, domestic units are expected to resume in mid-June, Japan's maintenance losses will increase compared with May, and the supply of European and American refineries is expected to increase.

Downstream demand is weak, production and sales of white goods are sluggish, and production may be hit under the pressure of high inventory of air conditioners and refrigerators. However, Zhejiang Petrochemical's ABS plans to increase its negative value in June, which may bring monthly incremental demand for styrene. The market also needs to pay attention to whether downstream gross profit continues to decline.

The valuation range of the main contract is set at 9,100 - 9,600 yuan, and investors are advised to short positions near price highs. At the same time, the cross-variety arbitrage strategy recommends reducing the EB-BZ lower price spread in June on rallies.

Investors need to be wary of variables such as equipment maintenance accidents, aromatic oil blending interference, styrene export growth and geopolitical risks, which may have an impact on the market.